ERCOT Large-Load Interconnection Grade

ERCOT is the default US market for speed-to-power. It still has the deepest uncommitted capacity and the lowest forward prices on this board. What it no longer has, as of August 2026, is a frictionless energization gate for new data-center and crypto load at or above 75 MW.

On June 18, 2026 the Public Utility Commission of Texas approved ERCOT's Batch Zero process: large-load requests of 75 MW and above are studied in a cohort rather than one at a time. The queue behind that process later printed at roughly 474 GW of interconnection requests, about 90% of it data centers — more than five times ERCOT's record peak. Classification notices were due August 7.

Why the grade moved

Governor Abbott's August 3 data-center audit stopped that clock. ERCOT skipped the August 7 classifications, then said it would not authorize ≥75 MW computational load to energize until it finishes a project-by-project verification of MW, site control, financial security, and ownership. It has aimed the audit at December 10. The long-term load and reliability study that had targeted April 9, 2027 is slipping.

The HD Market Scorecard cut ERCOT from A to A- on August 17, on time-to-power (35%) and large-load tariff/moratorium climate (20%). It held there through the December clock and the energization freeze. One notch per shock: the pause is finite, grandfathered load still energizes, and Texas still clears bring-your-own-power deals. An A would imply a gate that no longer exists.

What the grade is pricing

Powered land with executed interconnection standing, clean attestations, or a behind-the-meter path is the scarce asset. Unvetted queue position is not. Senate Bill 6 sits underneath the audit: Texas is writing the right to curtail co-located large load under stress, and the PUCT has already held that curtailment is not capped by the paired generator's capacity.

ERCOT remains the highest grade on this board. It is no longer the market where time-to-power can be treated as a given.