HD Intelligence Desk · November 2, 2026

PJM Files the Amended Backstop. The Offer Window Runs Four Weeks

Published November 2, 2026

What Happened

On October 29, 2026, PJM filed Docket No. ER27-330-000, accession 20261029-5227, requiring Electric Distributors outside a Fixed Resource Requirement area to report, no later than seven days before opening, aggregate incremental Large Load growth between the 2026 actual summer peak and the expected 2028/2029 summer peak, with each zone's share of the cost following that growth and staying fixed for the 15-year commitment term. The filing sets the credit rate at 40 percent of the net present value of the total payment obligation, removes the regulatory-status opt-out for cooperatives and municipal utilities, and leaves an exiting load-serving entity responsible for its charges through the commitment term, with most revisions effective February 28, 2027, Attachment DD, section 18.3A effective January 29, 2027, an order requested by January 29, 2027, and comments requested by November 30, 2026. The sell-offer window would run four weeks from March 1, 2027, so cycle 01 developers can see phase 1 results scheduled by March 26, PJM's Inside Lines account puts the close on March 28, the final target on April 28, and results on May 10, and Danielle Croop's affidavit says the 2026 load forecast indicates approximately 9,000 MW of large-load growth and an approximately 6,800 MW regional shortfall, with the target the lesser of the updated shortfall and the UCAP equivalent of reported Large Load growth, and the transmittal quotes Gwen Kelly's affidavit for an illustrative rate of approximately $686,000 per MW at $555/MW-day, about 3.4 years of undiscounted payments. The docket sheet from October 29 through November 2 shows that filing, doc-less motions to intervene by Public Citizen, accession 20261030-5060, and by Monitoring Analytics, accession 20261030-5087, and no Commission order.

Why It Matters

We hold PJM at D. Time-to-power is 35% of the grade: the 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction cleared 6,623 MW short of the reliability requirement, the largest driver was 5,250 MW of forecast load growth, nearly 5,100 MW of it data centers, and the 2028/2029 auction cleared 6,831 MW short. Order 196 FERC ¶ 61,245 still suspends Reliability Backstop Procurement to February 28, 2027, subject to refund, and Docket No. ER27-330-000 is a filing, not an accepted procurement. The ER26-3515 docket sheet through November 2 still shows no compliance filing on the Large Load definition and the registry, trend stays down, and the same shock is not cut twice.

The rest of the board

On October 28, 2026, the California ISO Board of Governors approved the large-load proposal. The ISO's news release the same day says the section 205 filing will be made by November 16. On October 30 the ISO posted a second revised draft tariff that adds ride-through in section 25.7.1: continuous operation from 58.8 Hz through 61.2 Hz, and an average active-power ramp, measured over a rolling ten-minute interval, that does not exceed 20 MW per minute, up or down, during normal operation. The draft is not a filed tariff. We hold WECC at C+. MISO's ER26-3650 docket sheet from October 19 through November 2 shows an October 28 answer by Central Municipal Power Agency Services and others, accession 20261028-5128, and no order. That is process, not reserve margin. Hold C.

PJM Files the Amended Backstop. The Offer Window Runs Four Weeks

What Happened

Why It Matters

The rest of the board

Sources