# The Cost-Shift Bill Comes Due: PJM's Monitor Puts Data Centers at 46% of Capacity Cost — and Every Grid Now Has to Answer for It

HD Intelligence Desk · Monthly report · August 1, 2026

## What Happened

PJM's independent market monitor (Monitoring Analytics, Joseph Bowring) reported in late July that data centers drove roughly $6.3B — about 38% — of the cost of PJM's most recent capacity auction ($16.4B total), and $29.4B, or ~46%, across the last four auctions combined. Bowring called the load surge a "paradigm shift" PJM is treating as "business as usual" and pressed for a separate capacity auction for large loads. The report lands three weeks before the August 17 deadline for all six RTOs/ISOs to answer FERC's June 18 Section 206 show-cause orders on large-load interconnection.

## Why It Matters

This is the clearest dollar-denominated proof yet that grid-tied hyperscale load is now the marginal cost driver in the largest U.S. capacity market — and that the political and regulatory system will move to make new load pay its own way. For HD, it hardens the core thesis: the scarce, defensible asset is powered land with a contracted, ring-fenced path to energy, not a queue position exposed to socialized-cost backlash. Markets that can isolate large-load cost (take-or-pay tariffs, co-location, behind-the-meter) will keep attracting capital; markets where load and ratepayers collide (PJM, increasingly the Northeast) will see tariffs, moratoria, and slower approvals — raising the value of sites already de-risked on power.

## Texas Sets a Forever Peak — and Doubles Its Own Forecast

ERCOT set an all-time demand record of 91,308 MW on July 22, and CEO Pablo Vegas now projects demand nearly doubling to ~175,000 MW by 2032, explicitly "driven by a massive influx of data centers." ERCOT is rebuilding its load-forecasting method as large loads overwhelm the old one; ~460,000 MW of generation sits in queue (≈70% solar/storage, ~78,000 MW gas). The read for HD: Texas remains the fastest at-scale path to power, but SB6's large-load interconnection and curtailment rules are the variable to watch — the state is pricing in the right to disconnect big loads under stress, which shifts risk onto the interconnecting customer.

## The Moratorium Line Moves North

New York enacted the first statewide hyperscale data-center moratorium (Gov. Hochul, ~one-year pause while standards are developed). New Jersey's Assembly passed a large-load tariff bill (≥50 MW, 85% take-or-pay for 10 years, contiguous-site aggregation) now awaiting Gov. Sherrill's signature. Both confirm the pattern: the Northeast is choosing ratepayer protection over speed. This is bearish for PJM/NYISO time-to-power and, by contrast, bullish for pre-powered, tariff-clear inventory in ERCOT, SPP, and the friendlier MISO subregions.

## Fuel & Forward Price

EIA's July STEO raised its Henry Hub forecast to $3.67/MMBtu for 2026 and $3.49 for 2027, though spot cleared near $2.81 in mid-July on weak near-term weather. Cheap near-term gas keeps behind-the-meter and co-located gas economically live as a bridge to grid power — a lever most useful precisely in the markets (ERCOT, SPP) where HD wants to be building.

## Sources

1. [Data centers drove $6.3B in PJM capacity auction costs: market monitor — Utility Dive](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-data-centers-capacity-auction-imm-bowring/825626/)
2. [FERC Presses Grid Operators on Data Center, Large Load Interconnections — Morgan Lewis](https://www.morganlewis.com/blogs/powerandpipes/2026/07/ferc-presses-grid-operators-on-data-center-large-load-interconnections)
3. [The 60-Day Clock (Aug 17 RTO/ISO response deadline) — Avanza Energy](https://avanzaenergy.substack.com/p/the-60-day-clock-ferc-just-forced)
4. [ERCOT forecasts energy demand to double in six years — Texas Tribune](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/07/29/texas-ercot-power-grid-record-data-center/)
5. [New York Enacts First Statewide Data Center Moratorium — Jones Day](https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2026/07/new-york-enacts-first-statewide-data-center-moratorium)
6. [New Jersey lawmakers pass bill to establish large load data center tariff — DCD](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/new-jersey-lawmakers-pass-bill-to-establish-large-load-data-center-tariff/)
7. [USA EIA Raises Henry Hub Price Forecast for 2026, 2027 — Rigzone](https://www.rigzone.com/news/usa_eia_raises_henry_hub_price_forecast_for_2026_2027-15-jul-2026-184139-article/)

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